What I mean by this tag

This topic covers the method itself—the thinking tools that apply across all the other topics. Incentive tracing, source evaluation, uncertainty labeling, falsifiability, and the discipline of distinguishing what you know from what you believe.

I'm also interested in the failure modes: how cynicism pretends to be wisdom, how naivety pretends to be open-mindedness, and how both make you easier to manipulate.

Related reading

Sources I trust on this topic.

  • Thinking, Fast and Slow (Kahneman) — Foundational on cognitive biases and how we make decisions.
  • The Scout Mindset (Julia Galef) — On truth-seeking vs. validation-seeking.
  • Superforecasting (Tetlock) — What actually makes people good at predicting things.
  • The Method pageRead the full Second Opinion method.